Year of the Swans

If we were still naming years, 2011 would have certainly been called "Year of the Swans". I don't recall witnessing a year full of actual events that were previously thought highly improbable or simply impossible.

Undoubtedly, 2011 pushed the boundaries of our knowledge to the absolute limits, forcing the reexamination of many ideas once thought absolute and models (economic in particular) once confused for realities. I'm sure that Nassim Taleb (the author of the Black Swan) probably had his most entertaining year.

Only a few minutes in, the year started with an explosion in Alexandria, Egypt killing approximately 23 and sparking a series of riots and sectarian clashes across the country.

Days later, the self-immolation of Bu Azizi in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia, sparked revolutions across the entire Arab World, toppling no less than four regimes, irrevocably changing region, and challenging our understanding of Arab society and politics.

The plethora of intellectuals that seem to materialize out of thin air, discussing the new era's promises and challenges, were within themselves as extraordinary as the events that unleashed them; perhaps best described as "Black Swan Chain Reaction".

Southern Sudan became an independent state and the inauguration was attended by [Northern] Sudan's Al Basheer. 

Palistine became a member of the UNESCO. Immediately the US decides to 'throw its toys out of the pram' and cuts funds to the organization on grounds of a law passed in 1990 prohibiting the US from funding any UN Organization that accepts Palestine as a member. I thought the US was a neutral broker in the peace process.

Ben Laden, once thought to have escaped the Americans was shot dead in his hiding "palace" in Pakistan.

The Fukashima Nuclear Disaster brought back nightmares the world thought were confined to a depopulated zone in Ukrain.

The disaster that struck almost exactly 25 years after Chernobil (24 years, 10 months, and 14 days to be exact) and tragic losses that followed resulted in the reexamination of the feasibility of nuclear power by some governments, while others have opted to completely phase them out. A source of energy once "confirmed" to be among the safest and cleanest.

The world's 7 billionth occupant was born. While not an improbable event within itself, it still is a milestone that was hit in 2011.

Concepts that were taught as the basis of the modern financial system were disproved. With the downgrading of the US Government, and practical meltdown of the Euro zone, sovereigns are no longer the "risk free borrowers" they once were. Many corporate bonds replaced government bonds as (minimal) income generating wealth preservation instruments. Infact, the entire Bretton-Woods system is being re-examined.

While expected so perhaps does not fully qualify as a Black Swan, the Euro is stretched to its limits with a high chance of collapsing entirely.As it turns out, Mediterranean European economies are not quite like Germanic economies and should not have been borrowing at the same rates after all.

My five year old son asked me why I do not grow hair on balding parts of my head, advising me "girls will think you're cool if your hair is longer". Like the Euro, this was a probable event that happened too early.